College Basketball Tournament Last 4 Preview

What a weekend of college basketball. Not only did we watch one of the biggest comebacks in tournament history, but we also have four incredible teams who have made it through to the last four. With two one-seeds set to face off in the next round, with Arizona and Michigan on one side of the bracket, and two tremendous stories on the other side, with 2-seed Connecticut and 3-seed Illinois, we are in for a heavyweight finish to what has been one of the best tournaments in a long time. 

Predicting the Last Four Tournament Matchups

Duke seemed to be primed for another weekend in the tournament. They were up 19 points on #2 Connecticut, a team that won back-to-back championships in 2023-2024. Connecticut was 1 for 18 shooting, and the clock was seemingly ready to strike midnight on their season. Down the stretch of the second half, Connecticut slowly chipped away at the deficit and found themselves down 72-70 with 10 seconds left in regulation. Duke inbounded the ball, and the Connecticut defense was swarming. They tipped the ball, and Connecticut regained possession at half-court. The ball found its way to Braylon Mullins near midcourt, who heaved a desperation three as time stood still for a moment. The shot didn’t even graze the rim on its way through the basket, and Connecticut took the lead with 0.4 seconds left on the clock. One more batted ball and Connecticut had snatched victory from the hands of defeat in one of the biggest comeback wins in tournament history. Down goes Duke, the tournament’s number one overall seed, and now Connecticut is moving on to face 3-seed Illinois on Saturday.

Illinois found themselves down early to the pseudo-Cinderella 9-seed Iowa. The game started with Iowa taking a 6-0 lead, the largest deficit Illinois had been down in the entire tournament. Iowa managed to stay ahead of Illinois until halftime, where they took a 32-28 lead into the locker room. But after halftime, Illinois flipped the script. The defense stiffened up and held Iowa to 27 second-half points. Illinois out-rebounded Iowa 38-21 and won the game 71-59. Now, Illinois will take on a white-hot Connecticut team on the heels of their miraculous comeback with a championship appearance on the line. Our markets give Illinois a 56% chance to win the game and a 54% chance to cover a -1.5 point spread. The winner of this matchup will face a one-seed no matter what, as Arizona and Michigan advanced through their regions without being upset. 

Arizona and Michigan are clashing in the Last Four after dominating each of their matchups in every round of the tournament. Both teams have covered every spread in the games they’ve played so far. Arizona hasn’t lost a game since February 14th, when they lost back-to-back matchups to their Big 12 rivals, Kansas and Texas Tech, without their star player Koa Peat. Those were their only two losses of the season in one of the toughest conferences in the sport. Their only two losses were by a combined 7 points, with the loss to Texas Tech coming in overtime.  They avoided a scare last round against the Big 10 tournament champion Purdue, where they were down 38-31 at halftime, but came back and easily covered the spread 79-64. 

Michigan’s resume is similar to that of Arizona’s, where they mostly dominated every team they matched up with all season. They lost only two games in the regular season as well, but they also fell to Purdue, the team Arizona just beat, in the Big 10 tournament finals. Michigan has scored 90+ points in each of their four matchups in the tournament. They are sporting the eighth most efficient offense and the fourth most efficient defense in basketball. The problem is that they’re facing the sixth most efficient offense and the eighth most efficient defense in Arizona. In what will surely be a heavyweight fight between two of the best teams in the league, our markets give Michigan a 53% to win and a 52% chance to cover a -1.5 point spread. 

Predicting the Tournament Championship

Based on our predictive markets, the winner of the Arizona vs Michigan matchup will be the favorite to win the championship, no matter who they play in the next round. Arizona and Michigan both have a 36% chance to win the championship. Since Illinois has a slight edge in the market over Connecticut, they are next in line on the odds board with a 20% chance to win the championship. That leaves Connecticut as the biggest underdog left, with a 15% chance to win their third championship in four years. 

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