2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory (Generic Ballot)

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the specific outcome that matches the margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote. All other outcomes will resolve to "No". The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5–6% and 6–7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5–6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6–7% range. The official resolution sources are the agencies listed in Rule 14.67 Section (c) in the CDNA Rulebook, which can be found at https://www.nadex.com/rules/. The notice of submission pursuant to CFTC regulation 40.2(a) for Rule 14.67 can be found at https://assets.ctfassets.net/8c2uto3zas3h/5FYmSvzQOPoVlVO4bnGtIf/184180f54f954f7e4a2a832778b10c39/PUBLIC_CDNA_Statistic_Certification_of_Event_Contract.pdf. Liquidity may be low while the event is live. Trading is temporarily paused during scheduled maintenance periods.