Predicting The Pro Basketball Playoffs Second Round

The first round of the Professional Basketball playoffs is in the books, and we’ve already seen some do-or-die game sevens, the favorite to win the East get knocked out, and only one team complete a series sweep. Now, the stage is set for the next round, where the cream will continue to rise to the top. Can Philadelphia take their momentum from beating Boston and get by New York? Are Oklahoma City and San Antonio destined to meet in the Conference Finals? Will Detroit or Cleveland make up ground after nearly stumbling in the first round? 

Predicting the Second Round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs

Philadelphia was the biggest surprise of the first round when they upset Boston in game seven Saturday night. No two teams have played each other more in the postseason, and Philadelphia had not won a series versus Boston in 44 years. The series appeared to be over when the seven-seed Philadelphia fell into a 3-1 hole after four games, but then they welcomed All-Star center Joel Embiid back into the lineup and won the final three games of the series. They are just one of 15 teams all-time to come back from a 3-1 deficit in the playoffs. Boston only hit 33.7% of their three-point shots in the playoffs, which caused them to struggle to score down the stretch.

Now, Philadelphia welcomes in the new favorite to win the Eastern Conference in New York. New York fell behind Atlanta early in their series, going down 2-1 after three games. But New York wouldn’t lose another game the rest of the series, including the largest margin of victory and largest halftime lead in Pro Basketball history in game six, when they won 140-89. All-Stars Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns will now welcome Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid in what should be a tightly contested semifinals. Our prediction markets make New York the favorite to win the series at -258, which equals a 72% chance to win. Our prediction markets also give New York a 40% chance of winning the East and advancing to the conference championship series. If you think Philadelphia will continue their Cinderella run this postseason, now that they’ve got Joel Embiid and Paul George healthy and in the lineup again, our markets give them a 14% chance to win the conference. 

The other side of the bracket features two teams trying to correct course after nearly getting eliminated in the first round. Detroit is the top seed in the East, but the 8th-seeded Orlando had them on the brink of elimination after taking a 3-1 lead after four games. However, Detroit would join Philadelphia in becoming one of the 15 teams to come back from a 3-1 deficit in Pro Basketball history. Detroit’s budding superstar Cade Cunningham carried his team late in the series, averaging 36.3 points per game in the final three games of the series, where Detroit was facing elimination in each one. 

They’ll have to face Cleveland, who is in their fourth straight playoff appearance, now winning a series in their last three. Cleveland also had to battle through a game seven on Sunday night against their first-round opponent, Toronto. The home team won in all seven games of their series. But since Cleveland had a better regular-season record, they got to play game seven on their home court and won 114 to 102. Cleveland’s Superstar deadline acquisition James Harden was 0-3 in his last three game sevens, but was able to buck the trend and claim victory with 18 points in the game. Now, they’re the underdog in the series against Detroit, where they’ll try to win more than one series in a postseason for the first time since 2018. Our prediction markets give Detroit a 32% chance to win the Eastern Conference, while they give Cleveland a 24% chance.

Predicting the Second Round of the Western Conference Playoffs

Oklahoma City dominated Phoenix in the first round of the playoffs. The overwhelming favorite to win the Pro Basketball MVP award, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, averaged 33.8 points per game and shot 55.8% from the field in their sweep of Phoenix. They’ve had plenty of time to rest, as they last played a game on Monday, April 27th, meaning they will have had eight days off between series. Oklahoma City is hoping that will give All-Star forward Jalen Williams enough time to get healthy, as he sustained a grade 1 hamstring injury during game two of the first round of the playoffs.

They’ll face Los Angeles, who took care of Houston in six games in the first round. However, that series was a war of attrition, as LeBron James played a majority of the series without his running mates Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. On the other side, Houston’s star player, Kevin Durant, only played one game in the series as he dealt with knee and ankle injuries. James carried his team to a victory at age 41, with Reaves rejoining the lineup in game five. There is no insight on whether or not Doncic will be back for this round of the playoffs, but Los Angeles will need all the help they can get against the reigning champs. Our markets give Oklahoma City a 94% chance to win the series and a 59% chance to win the championship this season. If you believe in Los Angeles in this matchup, you can get them at +900 odds to win the series. 

The other side of the bracket will feature an intriguing matchup between San Antonio and Minnesota. San Antonio won their first round series against Portland 4-1 while avoiding major injury concerns to Star Center Victor Wembanyama. He sustained a concussion in game two after falling on his head, but was able to return for game four of the series after progressing through the league’s concussion protocol. In Wembanyama’s first postseason, San Antonio is the second favorite behind Oklahoma City to win the championship.

Minnesota is the one thing standing between San Antonio and an appearance in the Conference Finals. They pulled one of the more shocking upsets in the first round, defeating Nikola Jokic and Denver in the first round. Throughout the series, their roster grew more and more depleted, as All-Star Anthony Edwards sustained a knee injury early in the series and Donte DiVencenzo was lost for the rest of the season after tearing his Achilles tendon. Trade deadline acquisition, Ayo Dosunmo, filled in admirably for them, but missed game six with an injury of his own. Despite all of that, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, and the rest of the Minnesota roster eliminated Denver in six games. Now, the status of Edwards and Dosunmo looms ahead of a road trip to San Antonio. Our prediction markets give San Antonio an 85% chance to win the series, and a 22% chance to win the championship this season. 

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