Fed rate decision preview: will the Fed hike interest rates in September 2026?
Here is what could shape the Fed’s September decision – and what OG.com traders are predicting.
Economics
By Ekaterina Drozdovica
The Fed's September interest rate decision could come down to the latest inflation data released on September 11.
Stronger job growth has supported the case for higher rates, while softer price pressure could give the Fed reason to hold.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Trading involves risk.
Key takeaways
- The Fed meets on September 15–16, 2026, and announces its interest rate decision on September 16.
- No change narrowly leads the live OG.com Fed prediction market, but a quarter-point rate hike is close behind.
- Strong August job growth has increased the chance of a hike, while the August inflation report on September 11 could shift expectations again.
When is the Fed’s next meeting?
The Fed’s next meeting takes place on September 15–16, 2026. Its interest rate decision will be announced on September 16, followed by an updated economic forecast and a press conference from the Fed chair.
The new forecast will show where Fed officials expect interest rates, inflation, economic growth and unemployment to move over the coming years. The press conference may provide further clues about whether rates could change again at the Fed’s next meeting in October.
What will the Fed do in September 2026?
A hold is the narrow favorite on OG.com prediction markets, but the decision remains finely balanced.
Strong hiring and inflation above the Fed’s 2% target would support a move above the current 3.50% – 3.75% range. Slower wage growth and the possibility of cooler August inflation support waiting.
OG market prices as of September 4, 2026, at 4:30 p.m. ET. For the latest data, please check OG.com platform.
The meeting will also include the Fed’s latest economic projections. These could offer new clues about where officials expect inflation, employment and interest rates to move over the coming months.
Why could the Fed raise rates in September?
The Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 3.7% in the year to July, while core PCE rose 3.3%. Both remain above the Fed’s 2% target.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller has also identified higher energy prices as an upside risk to inflation, although he said they had not yet caused widespread price increases.
The labor market added another reason to consider a hike. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that US employers added 162,000 jobs in August, compared with an average monthly gain of 31,000 over the previous year.
Unemployment remained at 4.1%, while hourly earnings rose 3.1% year over year. Hiring was stronger, but wage growth remained relatively moderate.
Fed officials have left both outcomes open. Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remained above target and that recent improvements had not yet changed the underlying trend. Waller said he would support holding rates if inflation continued to ease, but would consider a hike if the August data came in hotter.
What are analysts predicting for the September Fed meeting?
J.P. Morgan Wealth Management expects a 25-basis-point hike. Chief Investment Strategist Phil Camporeale said prolonged supply disruption and questions about the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility had “lowered the bar” for a September increase.
Capital Economics said the jobs report makes a hike easier to justify, although its forecast still depends on August inflation. Nationwide Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic expects two quarter-point hikes by year-end.
The case for holding rates rests on inflation cooling enough to give the Fed more time. That is why the September Fed rate forecast could still move sharply before the meeting.
What could change the Fed rate forecast?
August CPI, released on September 11, is the final major test. A hotter-than-expected reading could push the market toward a hike, especially if energy costs lift headline inflation. Softer core inflation could strengthen the case for no change.
Producer prices, energy costs and final Fed guidance also matter. August PCE arrives on September 30, after the meeting, so it cannot influence the September decision.
How to trade Fed prediction markets on OG.com
With OG.com, you can trade event contracts on real-world outcomes across economic markets.
- Create an account: Open an account and complete sign-up, including identity verification. You can use our web or mobile platforms.
- Browse markets: Explore markets across economics, including the next Fed interest rate decisions.
- Review and trade: Compare the market price with your own view. Check the rules, fees, and settlement details before opening a position.
- Monitor your position: After trading, your contract appears in your open positions, where you can track price movement as new information comes in.
FAQs about the September Fed rate decision
When is the September 2026 Fed meeting?
The FOMC meets on September 15–16, with the rate decision due September 16.
Will the Fed raise interest rates in September?
Analysts are leaning toward a rate hike, but the outlook remains uncertain. OG.com traders currently favor no change. The “no change” outcome trades at 55% implied probability, compared with 53% for a hike of up to 25 basis points. However, percentages can change as new information emerges.
What are the latest Fed rate decision odds?
At the time of writing, OG.com traders favor no change. Analysts, however, are leaning toward a rate hike, but the outlook remains uncertain. J.P. Morgan expects a 25-basis-point increase, while Capital Economics and Nationwide also see a stronger case for higher rates.
What data could change the Fed’s decision?
August consumer and producer inflation, energy prices and further comments from Fed officials could all shift expectations.
How do Fed prediction-market prices work?
A contract priced at 58¢ represents an implied probability of about 58%. If the prediction is correct, it returns $1; if it is incorrect, it returns nothing.
Important Information: Prediction is an event contract that is a derivatives product offered by North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. (NADEX), a CFTC-regulated exchange, which does business under the brand OG.com Prediction Markets (OG) Crypto.com | Derivatives North America and uses a CFTC-regulated exchange that uses OG.com technology.
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