Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers prediction, team news and injury report
Green Bay has a narrow market edge at 52%, with Dallas close behind at 49%. The Packers are slight favorites, but injuries to their defensive front give the Cowboys a route to controlling the game.
Football
By George Karmpoulonis
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers pairs two passing offenses with very different recent results. Jordan Love helped Green Bay move to 3–2 with a convincing win over Chicago. Dallas is 2–3 after losing to Tampa Bay, but the extra recovery time following that Thursday game could matter as CeeDee Lamb works through a quadriceps injury.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers game snapshot
Date: Sunday, October 18, 2026.
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET.
Competition: NFL Week 6.
Dallas Cowboys win: 49%.
Green Bay Packers win: 52%.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers prediction
Green Bay is the editorial lean in a close game. Love’s recent connection with his downfield targets gives the Packers the stronger immediate offensive case, although their defensive injuries prevent this from becoming a confident pick.
Love threw for 367 yards in the 31–7 win over Chicago, with Christian Watson and Matthew Golden both reaching 100 receiving yards. Dallas needs to prevent that same pattern of clean, explosive completions. Keeping both safeties deep can help, but it risks giving the Packers easier rushing opportunities.
The Cowboys’ run defense allowed Tampa Bay 241 yards on the ground in a 24–16 loss. Green Bay does not need to reproduce that total to benefit. Consistent gains would force Dallas to respect the handoff and make Love’s play-action opportunities more difficult to defend.
Dallas has its own opening against a depleted Packers front. Javonte Williams can help keep Dak Prescott out of obvious passing situations, while George Pickens remains a dangerous receiving option after his productive game against the Buccaneers. A healthy Lamb would make Green Bay’s coverage decisions considerably harder.
The pick is Green Bay, narrowly. Dallas has enough offensive ability to win, especially if it runs efficiently and Lamb can contribute without a meaningful limitation. The Packers need another strong passing performance rather than assuming last week’s takeaways will repeat.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers win probabilities
Green Bay Packers win – 52%
Dallas Cowboys win – 49%
Market data as of October 13, 2026.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers game outlook
Green Bay can force Dallas to choose between protecting against deep passes and adding help near the line of scrimmage. Patient runs and underneath completions would be useful even if they produce fewer highlights than Watson’s big plays against Chicago.
Dallas should test the Packers’ interior defense early. If Williams finds room, Prescott can work from more favorable situations and the Cowboys can keep Love waiting on the sideline. Repeated second-and-long plays would instead increase the pressure on a passing game with Lamb’s availability unresolved.
Team news and injuries
Dallas Cowboys
Lamb left the Tampa Bay game with a quadriceps injury, and his Week 6 availability remains a key question. Tyler Smith returned to the lineup against the Buccaneers, providing a useful improvement up front. The longer gap between games gives Dallas more recovery time, but it does not establish that Lamb will be ready.
Green Bay Packers
Javon Hargrave suffered a season-ending torn Achilles against Chicago, joining Edgerrin Cooper among the defense’s major losses. Micah Parsons has not been cleared to return from his ACL rehabilitation and is not expected to face Dallas. Benjamin St-Juste also left the Bears game with a hamstring injury. On offense, Josh Jacobs remains on the commissioner’s exempt list, with MarShawn Lloyd coming off a two-touchdown game.
Key factors that could decide the Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers game
Can Dallas defend the run without exposing its safeties?
The Cowboys need their front to absorb more of that responsibility. If a safety repeatedly has to step forward, Watson and Golden can attack the resulting space behind him.
Can the Cowboys exploit Green Bay’s interior absences?
A steady ground game would make it harder for the Packers to focus on Pickens. Dallas needs to create that balance early rather than turn to the run only after the passing game stalls.
Can Green Bay finish drives reliably?
Trey Smack missed two field goals and an extra point against Chicago. In a much closer game, those points could become decisive. The Packers need sound execution on routine scoring chances as well as explosive touchdowns.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers head-to-head
The teams played to a 40–40 overtime tie in September 2025. It was a reminder that both passing attacks can answer quickly, but it is not a forecast of another high-scoring finish. This meeting brings different defensive absences and uncertainty around one of Dallas’ most important receivers.
What could move Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers market price before kickoff?
Lamb’s practice workload is the clearest potential catalyst in this close market. Green Bay’s cornerback availability and its response to Hargrave’s absence also matter. A meaningful change in the wind forecast closer to Sunday could affect both deep passing and kicking, but no specific weather impact is assumed at this stage.
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