Predicting the Pro Basketball Conference Championships

Four teams remain in the Pro Basketball playoffs, and we have some new school rivalries set up to write their next chapter. Oklahoma City will welcome in the new guard in San Antonio, complete with a young trio of budding stars in Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper. Will they be enough to take down the reigning champs? Or will Oklahoma City continue their dominance in the postseason? On the other side of the bracket, you have New York, who just completed one of the most dominant sweeps in postseason history against Philadelphia, and Cleveland, who was just taken to the brink of elimination by Detroit. With Detroit’s dismissal from the bracket, New York takes back home-court advantage in the East and will host a Cleveland team they own a 12-2 postseason record against. But Cleveland brings no shortage of talent between Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, and Evan Mobley. This round will surely bring fireworks, but who will remain when it’s all said and done?

Predicting the Pro Basketball Western Conference Final Round

Oklahoma City has been the most dominant team in the league over the last two seasons. After going 68-14 last season and winning a championship, they went 64-18 this year and are currently 8-0 through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has just earned his second straight award for being the best player in the regular season, and broke Wilt Chamberlain’s record for most consecutive 20-point games in league history. Oklahoma City has also been one of the dominant defenses we’ve ever seen over the past two years, having the number one defensive rating in each regular season. The only thing not working in their favor is historical trends. They’re the first team to win a championship and make it back to the Conference Finals round since Golden State in 2017 and 2018. This was also the last time a team won back-to-back championships. They’re trying to be the first team to do so in eight years, and only the 11th team all-time to win multiple championships in a row. 

San Antonio is the team trying to prevent Oklahoma City from hitting the record books. This is the first postseason with their new young core, and they’re doing it after achieving a 62-20 record, the third-best defensive rating, and the fifth-best offensive rating in the league. They took care of Portland 4-1 in the first round and Minnesota 4-2 in the second round. Victor Wembanyama received honors as the league's best defensive player this season and has continued his dominance in the playoffs, amassing 41 blocks in 11 games. Now, these two teams will go head-to-head in a matchup featuring two 60+ teams for the first time since the 2017 Western Conference Finals, when San Antonio took on Golden State and got swept. 

Our prediction markets make Oklahoma City the favorite in this matchup, giving them a 70% chance of winning the series and advancing to the championship. They are also the favorites to win the championship at 60% odds to do so. However, if San Antonio were to win the series, they would likely be favored over whoever wins the East, as they are the second-favorites behind Oklahoma City in the championship market, with a 26% chance to win. 

Predicting the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Final Round

New York is walking into an ideal situation in the Eastern Conference Final Round, as they haven’t played a game since completing the sweep of Philadelphia on May 10th. Meanwhile, Detroit forced a game 7 last series against Cleveland, giving a stark contrast in days off between games for each team. New York will have nine days off, and Cleveland will have one. Since Detroit was the top seed in the East, New York will now be the better seed in the series and have home-court advantage. New York has the second-highest offensive rating behind Oklahoma City in these playoffs, and will now try to advance to the championship for the first time since 1999. They haven’t won a championship since 1973. 

Cleveland will be trying to go back to the championship since LeBron James and company lost to Golden State in 2018. They’ve made the playoffs in each of the last four seasons, but this is the first time they’ve advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals in that stretch. The last time they played New York in the playoffs, they lost in five games in 2023. They’re hoping this time will be different now that they have Donovan Mitchell and James Harden in their backcourt. Mitchell is averaging 25.6 points in the playoffs, and Harden is averaging 6.2 assists, the third-highest among remaining players in their respective categories. 

Our prediction markets make New York the favorite in this matchup, giving them a 71% chance to win the series. They have a 16% chance to win the championship, the third-favorite in the market. If you believe Cleveland will win this series, you can get them at +222 odds to do so. Our predictions make Cleveland the largest underdog to win the championship at a 5% chance. 

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