Predicting the 2026 Pro Golf Championship Tournament

The second major golf tournament of the year is set to kick off on Thursday, May 14th, at Aronimink Golf Club in Newton Square, PA. It’s been a long time since major golf has been played at this club, as the Pro Golf Championship tournament was last played here in 1962. However, it was also the host site of the 2020 KPMG Women’s Pro Golf Championship, and the last time the men’s league played here was the 2018 BMW Championship. It’s a tricky course that features the highest concentration of bunkers throughout the course. There are roughly 170-180 sprinkled throughout, so get ready to watch your favorite guys try to hit it out of the sand. 

The Pro Golf Championship Tournament Format

Much like The Masters, the entire field will play the first 36 holes. The field features 156 golfers who have qualified for the tournament based on their World Golf Ranking, or if they’ve placed highly in this tournament in the past. If you’ve ever won this tournament or any other major tournaments in the last five years, you automatically qualify as well. After the first two rounds, the field of 156 golfers will be cut down to the top 70 golfers. After that, they’ll play two more rounds, and whoever registers the lowest score under par will win the tournament, the prize money, which equaled just over $9 million last year, and the Wanamaker trophy. 

Predicting the Pro Golf Championship Tournament Winner

The reigning champion of this tournament is none other than Scottie Scheffler, who won this tournament and five others last season. That’s a stark contrast to this season, where Scheffler has only one tournament win, at the American Express in January this season. He’s still hitting the ball well, with six top-five finishes, including three second-place finishes this season. All three of those second-place finishes have come in the last three tournaments he’s played, including the Masters, which is the only other major that’s been played so far this year. It’s been a while since we’ve seen Scheffler stand alone at the top of the board, but maybe this is the tournament where he gets back over the hump and reclaims his title. Our predictive markets make Scheffler the favorite to win the championship at a 17% chance, which is equal to +488 odds.

The last major winner in the field is Rory McIlroy, who made history this season by becoming the first golfer since Tiger Woods in 2001-2002 to win back-to-back Masters. Now, he’ll try to become the first golfer to win back-to-back majors since Brooks Koepka in 2018. McIlroy was leading the field at the Masters for nearly the entire weekend, but was nearly caught by a surging Scottie Scheffler and a strong performance by Cameron Young. McIlroy has also won this tournament twice before, in 2012 and 2014, on the way to completing his career Grand Slam. Still, it’s been twelve years since McIlroy has held the Wanamaker trophy, but maybe his momentum will carry over from all of his recent success. Our prediction markets put McIlroy just behind Scheffler as the second favorite in the field at a 10% chance to win, which is valued at +900 odds. 

The third favorite in the field is a young up-and-coming Cameron Young. Young had the lead after the third round of the Masters, but ended up tying for third after falling behind McIlroy on the final day. He has three career tournament wins, with two of them happening at The Players and the Cadillac Championship this year. He’s placed in the top 10 in six of his last seven tournaments played and is trying to win his first major title this weekend. Our prediction markets give him a 7% chance to win his first major, equal to +1300 odds, just behind Scheffler and McIlroy. 

As all past winners qualify for this tournament, there are quite a few featured in this field. Along with Scheffler, former champions since 2020 that are playing in the field include Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, and Collin Morikawa. Phil Mickelson hoisted the trophy in 2021, but he will be absent for an ongoing family issue that caused him to withdraw from the Masters as well. None of the recent champions listed land very high up on the odds boards for this go around, with the highest odds being Xander Schauffele at a 5% chance to win. Schauffele has found success at this course before, as he had a top-three finish when the BMW Championship was played here in 2018. However, Koepka and Thomas also placed in the top 20 of that field, and Morikawa did not participate. Our prediction markets give Koepka a 3% chance, or +3200 odds to win the tournament this year. Thomas and Morikawa have a 2% chance, equal to +4900 odds.

Important Information

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Predictions markets are volatile and carry risk. Please consult a financial adviser before making investment decisions. It is essential to do research and due diligence to make the best possible judgment, as any purchases shall be your sole responsibility.

Prediction is an event contract that is a derivatives product offered by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-regulated exchange. Trading on CDNA involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. By trading you risk losing your cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on CDNA is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk.

Economic and market forecasts are subject to change without notice. Figures and projections in this article are based on available data as of October 2025, with partial extrapolation during the government shutdown. Actual Bureau of Labor Statistics releases may differ materially once regular publication resumes.