2026 College Basketball Tournament Preview

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It’s an exciting time in the basketball world as 68 teams come together for The Tournament. The field is set, and teams from all 31 D1 conferences will face off for a chance to cement their name into the history books. There’s plenty of intrigue, from Duke trying to atone for last year’s breakdown, to Miami Ohio trying to prove their undefeated season wasn’t a fluke, but only one team will cut down the nets when it’s all said and done. 

The reigning champion is Florida, which defeated Houston 65-63 to win the championship last season. Before that, UConn had taken back-to-back titles from 2023-2024. Will Florida follow suit and go back-to-back? They’ve earned a number one seed once again this season, along with Duke, Michigan, and Arizona. A one-seed has won the championship the last two years, 26 times total, and 65% of all of the tournaments since they expanded the field to 64+ teams. Will that be the case this season, or will a Cinderella team make a run to a title? 

Predicting the Tournament’s East Region

The Tournament’s East Region is absolutely loaded with talent. Duke is the number one overall seed, but that puts them in a region that is littered with teams and Head Coaches that have gone on deep runs in March. Among John Scheyer with Duke, Mick Cronin of UCLA, Bill Self of Kansas, Rick Pitino of St. John's, and Tom Izzo of Michigan State, they have combined for 22 final weekend appearances and seven championships. Outside of these noted programs, this region has a ton of name-brand competition like Ohio State, Louisville, and TCU. 

The East Region will be tough to navigate because of how much defensive talent these teams have. Seven teams in this region rank in the top 25 of defensive efficiency this season. I would expect a lot of low-scoring defensive rock fights as teams try to fight their way out of the East Region. The best defense in the region is also the favorite to win the entire tournament in Duke. A year after they were eliminated in the final weekend by Houston, Duke is trying to give its head coach, John Scheyer, a chance to add his name to the list of champions. They have five championships all-time, but zero have occurred under Scheyer’s regime. Our prediction markets give Duke a 23% chance to win it all this season. 

Predicting the Tournament’s West Region

Even though Duke is the overall number one seed in the tournament, there’s a chance the best team could reside in this region. Arizona has 12 wins over ranked opponents this season, which accounts for 38% of their wins this season. Plus, they aren’t dealing with injuries like Duke is with Caleb Foster. They won the Big 12 title with an exciting 79-75 victory over Houston on Saturday Night, which propelled them into a 1-seed and the top team in the West Region. Our prediction markets give them the third-highest odds of winning a championship at 18%. 

Where might Arizona trip up? This region has six of the top 20 offenses, and there is potential for plenty of high-scoring matchups. They will also have to get through the Big Ten champion Purdue and the WCC champion Gonzaga, both of which have appeared in the championship game in the last five years. Gonzaga is also the highest-ranked team in defensive efficiency this season. This region also features Wisconsin, which has wins against 1-seed Michigan and 2-seed Purdue this season, and BYU, which has AJ Dybantsa, who is projected to be a top pick in the upcoming NBA draft. 

Predicting the Tournament’s South Region

The South Region is headlined by the reigning champions, Florida. They have earned a one-seed for the second season in a row and will attempt to follow UConn’s lead in winning back-to-back championships. They’re returning several players from last year’s championship squad, but they have just the fourth-highest odds to win the championship this year by our prediction markets, the lowest odds of the four one-seeds.

The lack of respect for Florida most likely stems from how dangerous the other teams in their region are. They may have to play their conference rival, Vanderbilt, for the third time this year if they want to make it out of this region. They’ve lost twice to them already, including a 91-74 blowout loss in the Southeastern Conference tournament. They have Houston, the team they narrowly beat in the championship last season, in their region as the two-seed. The three-seed Illinois also presents a threat, as they have wins over ranked teams like Purdue, UConn, and Nebraska this season. Illinois is the highest-ranked team in offensive efficiency this season. It’ll be no easy feat to repeat this season.

Predicting the Tournament’s Midwest Region

Michigan is the last remaining one-seed and the top seed in the Midwest Region. Michigan made a run to the Round-of-16 in last year’s tournament as a five-seed, but lost to the top-seeded Auburn in Head Coach Dusty May’s first season with the team. Now, May has turned this team into a one-seed and has a 58-13 record over his first two seasons. They’ve earned a one-seed despite not winning the Big Ten Conference tournament, as they lost in the finals to Purdue 80-72. They will be attempting to win their first National Championship since 1989. Our prediction markets give Michigan the second-highest odds to win the tournament at 20%.

There are several teams that could challenge Michigan in this region. If Iowa State won the Big 12 Tournament, they could very well be sitting as a one-seed, but instead, they lost to Arizona on a last-second buzzer-beating shot. Now they land as the two-seed in this region with the third-ranked team in defensive efficiency this season. They will also have to face Alabama, which, under Nate Oates, has a 168-72 record and an appearance in the round-of-four. They are also the sixth-ranked offense in the league this season. Texas Tech is the five-seed in this region, which was trending to be one of the best teams in the country this season until their star forward JT Toppin tore his ACL and missed the rest of the season. Virginia is the three-seed in this region, and they are just seven years removed from their last championship. There is plenty of worthy talent to challenge Michigan’s run to the championship. 

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